.
On the other hand, a sub-500 last month of the season does not automatically translate into getting swept in the first round of the playoffs. Among the teams that were swept in the Division Series since 2004, only two of them had .500 winning percentages or below from September 1 to the end of the regular season.

Two other notable examples are Angels in 2004 and the Phillies in 2007. Both of those teams had to make mad runs just to overtake the teams in first place going into September and get into postseason.

A few trends in the last month plus are cause for concern. Ryan Franklin has struggled since the day before Labor Day with an ERA over 7 in that span. Albert Pujols hit his 47th and final home run on September 9, with only 11 RBI’s since then. He is batting .323 since September 11, so those hits have to become homers and RBI’s sooner or later. If Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright were struggling going into the playoffs, I’d be really worried. Carpenter is 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA in September and October while Wainwright is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA.

With all that in mind, the Dodgers are probably the most ideal opponent, having lost five in a row after the magic number for clinching the NL West was reduced to one. The Phillies have closer issues. The Rockies are the hottest team among the four NL playoff teams. That could translate to opening the NLCS in St. Louis, if the Cardinals can beat the Dodgers. On the American League, the Detroit Tigers are considered the least threatening of all of the last nine teams still standing, but that was case for the Cardinals in 2006.

No question, the Matt Holliday trade is the Cardinals
biggest midseason acquisition. Coincidentally, the last offseason trade of any
significance was with the Oakland Athletics (for Mark Mulder, a seemingly good
one at the time that is) and the last major midseason trade was for a player
whose best seasons were with the Colorado Rockies (for Larry Walker).

The additions of Holliday and Mark DeRosa turns a lineup
that had three or four decent hitters not named Pujols into a lineup that has
nine good hitters.  Ryan Ludwick was
already starting to heat up before the All-Star break and has actually cooled
off a little since the acquisition of Holliday. But now he can bat fifth rather
than fourth. Again Tony LaRussa has that “trap door” that Troy Glaus and a
productive Rick Ankiel gave him in 2008, providing the flexibility to bat the
hot hitter ahead of Albert Pujols and the slumping hitter behind Pujols.
Holliday has put up good numbers batting cleanup for Oakland and continues to do so with St. Louis. The big stat that sticks out is
batting average with two out and runners in scoring position (.366). 

Meanwhile Ludwick can maintain his productivity in the fifth
spot. His numbers since the trade for Holliday are not all that impressive.

The addition of Holliday and his July splits and his batting
order splits would suggest that his overall numbers will translate into very
good overall offensive stats for the 2009 season.

Rick Ankiel started to heat up in the week leading up to the
trade for Holliday, but certainly after the trade took place. 

* Does not include the three-game interleague series against the Milwaukee Brewers (the result being a Milwaukee sweep), their final season in the American League.

Among the teams the Cardinals have played 15 or more interleague games against, their best win percentage is actually against the Minnesota Twins (.600). We have three game series sweeps in 1997 and 2001 to thank for that, considering this is a team that has played the Cardinals tough with series wins in 1998, 1999, and 2000, even when they were perennial cellar dwellers. The outcome of that series against Minnesota weekend could be a matter whether the team is hot or cold. For a more accurate sample size, the Cardinals have a decent record against Kansas City, cross-state rivals they play every year at 30-24.

On the basis of this year’s interleague opponents, history is not on the Cardinals’ side, but a good stretch these next two weeks could make 2009 and exception to the rule.

It is no longer just bordering on embarrassing. This slump of the Cardinals that dates back to May 4 is embarrassing. The Cardinals were outscored 33-9 when the Rockies swept them in a four-game this past weekend. As Thom Brennaman put it during Fox’s telecast of the April 25 game against the Cubs, where El Hombre hit his second grand-slam of the season, this offensive production was not going to last season. The streakiness of the big boppers in the lineup was the culprit in a number of come-from-ahead losses in 2008 every bit as much as the bullpen’s 31 blown saves. The offense was without Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel for about three weeks with the team going 11-9 from May 4 to May 27. Even with those bats back in the lineup, it is the same old song and dance. The game is lost during the one inning where a pitcher and get a guy out to save his life and then put out of reach when the bullpen is now buckling under the pressure to keep these games close. We cannot use injuries as an excuse as Ludwick’s batting average continues to decline and Ankiel shows signs of busting loose, although the numbers are nowhere as good as last year’s. We are now truly seeing the affect Troy Glaus’s absence is having on the offense.

The lineup is lacking a true cleanup hitter–a Manny Ramirez to Albert Pujols’s Big Papi (of course that comparison makes little sense in 2009). A hitter who actually thrives in the role of cleanup hitter is rarity in baseball. The combination of Ryan Ludwick, Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, and Yadier Molina has a combined .203 average batting in the cleanup spot. The absence of Troy Glaus makes this a more glaring problem. Now, granted he did not put up stellar numbers as a cleanup hitter in 2008. In fact, his best production came out of the Number 5 spot the lineup where he had 81 of his 99 runs batted in, along with a .495 slugging percentage and .871 OPS in 394 at-bats. Those same numbers in 114 at-bats in the cleanup spot were 13, .351, and .656 respectively. Glaus and a more productive Rick Ankiel during the first two-thirds of 2008 gave the Cardinals’ offense a trap door, if you will. Whichever one of these streaky hitters, along with Ludwick, was hot would get to bat in the cleanup spot. As he was starting garner national attention in April and May, Luddy got more at-bats in the cleanup spot. When his bat cooled off in June, he would bat as low as sixth or even bat second behind Pujols once Albert returned from the disabled list.  He was the most productive in 2008 batting either or fourth.

By Batting Order	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Batting #2	127	29	43	12	2	10	30	14	2	34	.339	.407	.701	1.108
Batting #4	264	49	78	17	0	20	59	29	4	72	.295	.369	.587	.956

Take away Ludwick’s at-bats in the cleanup spot and the three others who have gotten at-bats there are batting a combined .151. That may be a reason for Ludwick’s May and June decline (which began before going on the disabled list) following a solid April.

By Day/Month		AB	R		H		2B		3B		HR		RBI		BB		HBP		SO		SB		CS		AVG		OBP		SLG		OPS
April		74	10		22		4		0		5		19		4		0		14		1		0		.297		.329		.554		.883
May		43	7		8		0		0		3		8		7		2		9		1		0		.186		.321		.395		.716
June	24		1	3		0		0		1		1		0		0		5		0		0		.125		.125		.250		.375

Ludwick is stuck in the cleanup spot in the batting order because no one else has been able to equal the production of a productive Ryan Ludwick.

The need for another bat in the lineup becomes more urgent. Matt Holliday has again come up in possible trade talk. The detractors during the offseason pointed out his poor numbers away from Coors Field, but his fortunes have changed since joining the Oakland Athletics with better on the road than at home.

By Breakdown	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Home	100	14	26	4	1	4	21	15	3	19	.260	.373	.440	.813
Away	105	16	32	6	0	4	16	13	2	16	.305	.392	.476	.868

He has been productive with the majority of his at-bats in the cleanup spot.

By Batting Order	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Batting #4	192	27	53	9	1	8	36	24	5	33	.276	.371	.458	.829

Of course, the one caveat is what the Cardinals would have to give up to get Holliday. Management certainly does not want to mortgage away too much farm talent for a rental. Rick Ankiel is the most likely major league player Oakland may ask for. With Colby Rasmus showing flashes of how good he can be for years to come and Ankiel being a Scott Boras client, Ankiel may not be long for this team anyway. In the meantime, has Tony La Russa considered batting Albert Pujols in the cleanup spot as often as he has mulled over the pros and cons of batting the pitcher eighth? Considering the offensive production, or lack thereof, maybe TLR should give it a try. He has not batted cleanup since May 29, 2003, and his numbers from 2002 up to that point were far better than what we have been getting from cleanup hitters in ’09.

2003

By Batting Order	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Batting #4	58	13	21	7	0	2	10	8	1	5	0	0	.362	.435	.586	1.021

2002

By Batting Order	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Batting #4	466	97	148	35	0	28	112	68	5	52	.318	.407	.573	.980

Of course that would mean lesser likelihood of Pujols batting in the first inning. Who bats in front of Pujols will still be an issue. That move could allow Ludwick to bat third behind Pujols and take the pressure off other possible cleanup hitters by batting fifth. The Cardinals may not have a true cleanup hitter, but they have plenty of fifth-place hitters. It worked for the Giants in 2002 when Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent traded spots in the batting order (where Bonds batted third and Kent fourth for the previous five years), something Cardinals fans know all too well following that year’s National League Championship Series. A similar move is not as radical as batting the pitcher eighth, but it could give this struggling offense a boost.

]]> http://midcobirds.mlblogs.com/2009/06/09/slumping-hitters-not-cleaning-up/feed/ 0 tott http://midcobirds.mlblogs.com/2008/06/25/where-does-skip-schumaker-rank-among-nl-leadoff-hitters/ http://midcobirds.mlblogs.com/2008/06/25/where-does-skip-schumaker-rank-among-nl-leadoff-hitters/#comments Wed, 25 Jun 2008 16:54:50 +0000 mlblogsmidcobirds http://midcobirds.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/06/where_does_skip_schumaker_rank.html ]]> In an era of what Yahoo!Sports’s Jeff Passan termed Leadoff 2.0, where does the Cardinals’ Skip Schumaker rank in OPS and total bases. Detroit Tigers leadoff hitter Curtis Granderson made a good point quoted in Passan’s May 21 column. He only leads off only once in the game. For the rest of the game, the leadoff batter will most likely bat with runners on base.

In his first year as an everyday player in the major leagues, Schumaker has one quality you look for in a leadoff batter, which is a high on-base percentage. He hits line drives and puts the ball in play. His manager Tony LaRussa cites on-base percentage as more important for a leadoff hitter than stolen bases. Besides, what good is a guy who steals a lot of bases if he does not get on base enough. That was why Kerry Robinson could not fit into that role on a regular basis during his years in St. Louis. Schumaker does not fit in the category of leadoff hitters capable of leading off the game with a home run. He will often swing at the first pitch, which will tend go against the philosophy of having a patient hitter. LaRussa will often point out though that being aggressive is important when batting with runners on base. Despite all the emphasis sabrematricians put on on-base percentage, what good is a two-out walk to load the bases if the next batter makes an out? Through Sunday, Schumaker  is batting .346 with 23 RBI’s with runners in scoring position. With two out and runners in scoring position, he is batting .320 with 9 RBI’s.

Now, how does he compare with other NL leadoff hitters? While sabremetrics may overemphasize on-base percentage– the great Oakland Athletics teams of the early 2000′s were built around on-base percentage, but their inability to get enough timely hitting would knock them out in the first round of the playoffss– the stat known as OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) does have merit. It is a measure of a hitter’s ability to get on base and to get extra-base hits. Hitting doubles and triples creates more scoring opportunities every bit as much as hitting home runs, and lessening a team’s dependence on station-to-station baserunning. Schumaker has had a reputation as a guy who hits balls in the gaps. Here is where he ranks among National League leadoff hitters in OPS through this past Sunday (leadoff hitters based on team leaders in at-bats from the No. 1 spot).

Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh .921

Hanley Ramirez, Florida .907

Alfonso Soriano, Chicago .879

Jose Reyes, New York .844

Fred Lewis, San Francisco .845

Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia .801

Skip Schumaker, St. Louis .798

Yunel Escobar, Atlanta .778

Jody Gerut, San Diego .778

Cristian Guzman, Washington .768

Chris Young, Arizona .734

Juan Pierre, Los Angeles .665

Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee .677

Willy Taveras, Colorado .605

Michael Bourn, Houston .590

Dusty Baker’s godson (sorry, couldn’t resist) Corey Patterson, Cincinnati .566

…and in total bases.

Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh 161

Hanley Ramirez, Florida 152

Jose Reyes, New York 150

Cristian Guzman, Washington 143

Chris Young, Arizona 131

Fred Lewis, San Francisco 122

Alfonso Soriano, Chicago 116

Yunel Escobar, Atlanta 116

Skip Schumaker, St. Louis 111

Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia 97

Michael Bourn, Houston 83

Juan Pierre, Los Angeles 82

Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee 82

Willy Taveras, Houston 74

Jody Gerut , San Diego71

Corey Patterson, Cincinnati 62

In other words, Skip has more total bases than 2007 NL MVP Jimmy Rollins. That he ranks in the top ten in both categories provides a guy at the top of the lineup who can both get on base and drive in runs. Compare that with Cardinals leadoff hitters the past five years.

David Eckstein

2007: .738 OPS, 166 TB

2006: .694 OPS, 172 TB

2005: .758 OPS, 249 TB

Tony Womack

2004: .734 OPS, 213 TB

Fernando Vina / Bo Hart

2003: .703 OPS, 216 TB

Though he does have a higher OPS than Chris Young (batting the leadoff spot, more for his power and speed), Schumaker is more comparable to former Cardinal Mark Grudzielanek, good for about 20-30 doubles a year. In one respect, he has exceeded expectations. In six minor league seasons (2001-2006), Schumaker has career .378 slugging percentage. In 2008, through Sunday, his slugging percentage is .435. Skip was not guaranteed his role in spring training. He has taken the opportunity given him and ran with it.  

1. Addition by subtraction: That was how Whitey Herzog rationalized trading Keith Hernandez. Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen made a lot of money for guys who contributed very little offensively in 2007. Edmonds’s numbers had been on the decline since 2004 until reaching dismal career lows in batting average (.252), on-base percentage (.325), slugging percentage (.403), home runs (12), and RBI’s (52). At the age of 37, his best years are clearly behind him.

Rolen had through a similar tailspin. He got off to a decent start in 2006 considering he was coming off major shoulder surgery. His pre-All Star break power numbers (14 homers, 28 doubles, .577 slugging percentage, .976 OPS) were projected to improve as he gained strength. Those numbers dropped considerably the second half and even sat out the clinching game of the Division Series complaining of shoulder fatigue. In 2007, his run production was almost non-existant. Tony LaRussa was fuming when he learned in July that Rolen had a sore shoulder. Eventually, Scott shut it down on August 31 to have more surgery. His relationship with the skipper had been strained since the 2006 postseason. He burned his bridges in St. Louis as he had done in Philadelphia, and he was traded in January.

Edmonds and Rolen made up two thirds of the 2004 MV3′s (Albert Pujols the other third of that group), but were nothing but dead weight in 2007. They provided great moments in their tenures with the Cardinals, but the time came for them to move on so the roster could be injected with younger talent.

2. Blue collar pitching staff with strong performances: Local pundits argued that the offense looked decent, so starting pitching was the big unknown. Could relievers turned starters Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer improve upon 2007? What kinds of contributions could we expect from Mark Mulder, Brad Thompson, Matt Clement, or Joel Piniero? Looper and Wellemeyer are tied for the team lead in wins with 7. While that stat is probably not an accurate measure of pitcher’s effectiveness, but they have done enough to give their team a chance at winning. Wellemeyer’s peripheral stats during the month of May made him the rotation’s best that month. The big question is whether Todd can keep this up is still a question. Adam Wainwright has established himself as staff ace. As the season has progressed, fans are probably the most optimistic about Chris Carpenter’s return given the amazing recovery rate from Tommy John surgery. But after 1998 when Matt Morris, Alan Benes, and Jeff Brantley were expected to make significant contributions after recovering from injuries, we shouldn’t get too excited until he has back on a major league. Things haven’t exactly worked out with Mulder and Clement.

3. Contributions from youngsters: Skip Schumaker has established himself as a solid leadoff whether playing left, center, or right. Rule 5 pick Brian Barton has made a strong contribution as a backup outfielder. Ryan Ludwick has become a force hitting behind El Hombre. Kyle McClellan now has an important role pitching out of the bullpen. Chris Perez has a recent snag, but he has done well thus far as 8th inning setup man. The minor leagues have strong pitching talent who have already gotten some time on the big club. Mike Parisi and Mitchell Boggs have already logged some big league time.

I would classify the attitude of Cardinal Nation as one of catious optimism. Too many things could happen between now and the end of the season. The Milwaukee Brewers led the NL Central for most of last year before having an abyssmal August. The Chicago Cubs look almost unstoppable. Injuries have hit Cardinals in the last week. Wellemeyer may miss his next start with elbow inflamation. Joel Piniero was expected to miss one start, but he has been slow to recover and his replacement Mike Parisi got lit up in his two starts.

For now, we can only hope the 2008 St. Louis Cardinals are in a good position to reach the postseason two months from now. Tony LaRussa preaches taking things one game at a time, one series at a time. Former NFL coach Jim Mora’s famous 2001 news conference– which ended with him saying, “Playoffs? Don’t talk about playoffs! I just hope we can win a game!” – happened during a miserable season. But TLR’s message keeps his players from getting too complacent. Even if his team was running away with a division lead in June, mentioning the P-word is not a good idea.